APTIran is pursuing a strategy of calibrated escalation to maximise pressure through its missile arsenal, drone fleet and regional proxy networks, according to Galip Dalay, a Senior Consulting Fellow at Chatham House. Dalay said Tehran’s growing sense of existential threat is driving increasingly aggressive tactics across the Gulf and beyond. He noted that estimates of Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile vary widely — from a few thousand to more than 20,000 — and warned that a prolonged conflict would strain those capabilities over time.
Beyond missiles and drones, Iran could escalate further by targeting shipping lanes or mining the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy corridor. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have claimed strikes on oil tankers and military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, raising fears of wider regional disruption. Shipping data shows hundreds of vessels anchoring in nearby waters, as traders anticipate potential spikes in global crude prices amid rising tensions.
