Deutsche WelleConflicts Ukraine Ceasefire in sight? What’s next for Russia’s war in Ukraine Roman Goncharenko
Four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is the end finally in sight? DW spoke to US political experts about why they think US home elections could bring about a ceasefire.
As the US-Israel war with Iran continues to capture the world’s focus, other crises, including Russia’s war in Ukraine, are receiving less attention. Now Kyiv, fearing it will soon be receiving fewer US weapons, is digging in for a years-long protracted war while Russia profits from skyrocketing oil and gas prices. That’s one side of the proverbial coin.
On the other side, there is a de facto deadlock along the front lines. Neither side has been able to achieve any substantive gain in territory, and Ukraine is stepping up attacks on oil export infrastructure deep in Russian territory. Meanwhile, approval ratings for Russian President Vladimir Putin are allegedly plummeting amid increasing mobile internet blackouts.
With Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine entering its fifth year, Western observers and military analysts believe the war might soon be over. Speaking with DW at the Kyiv Security Forum in April, they said the US mid-term elections could play a decisive role in ending it.
Will Putin order another mobilization?
Considering the lack of movement along the front line, international experts have long been speculating whether Putin might announce another mobilization like he ordered in late 2022. Ukrainian military experts, including those Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently cited, say they wouldn’t rule it out.
Evelyn Farkas, a foreign policy expert and former Pentagon appointee at the McCain Institute of the Arizona State University, says she does not believe Russia will attempt another mass call-up. As she sees it, the current difficulties Russia’s economy is facing are what’s stopping it.
Putin faces falling popularity as Russian economy slows
Will Ukraine become less reliant on arms sales?
According to Kurt Volker, who served as US President Donald Trump‘s US special representative for Ukraine until 2019, Ukraine is in a stronger position than before, despite the blockade in the Persian Gulf.
He believes Kyiv has significantly reduced its reliance on Western weapons deliveries and instead is able to cover “up to 60% or 70%” of its own needs. That means it could continue fighting even if the US stopped providing arms through European partners.
Just a year ago, while visiting the US, Zelenskyy expressed concern that Ukraine would lose the war with Russia if the US withdrew support. But, Volker says, that is no longer the case.
He also notes the US can no longer guarantee it will continue delivering the same amount of missiles crucial for the Patriot air defense systems as before.
Volker believes this is due to Trump’s “priorities,” which in this case favor the war with Iran.
Will the US redirect weapons from Ukraine to the Iran war?
Will Zelenskyy be able to withstand US pressure?
Ukraine’s president recently remarked that he was anticipating Trump to ramp up the pressure on him as the fall midterm elections drew nearer to ensure Ukraine accepted Russia’s ceasefire conditions. These include Ukraine withdrawing troops from the parts of the Donbas it currently controls. Farkas believes Zelenskyy will be able to withstand this pressure.
Instead, the national security expert expects Trump’s administration to end its war with Iran by the summer, leaving the Strait of Hormuz clear for maritime traffic, and turn its attention to pursuing “regime change” in Cuba. Not even in this scenario, she says, would she expect the White House to exert more pressure on Kyiv. On the contrary — this might weaken Russia, as it maintains strategic ties with the island.
Is Donald Trump going to take on Cuba next?
Serious negotiations after the midterms
Farkas and Volker agree that the midterm House election in November will be a critical turning point, as it could weaken Trump’s standing in the Republican party.
“That will be enough to put pressure on the US government to continue its support for Ukraine and to continue its support for NATO,” Farkas says.
The chair of the NATO military committee Giuseppe Cavo Dragone says this war would be “difficult” to win on the battlefield, as Russia’s army has remained “strong” despite growing losses.
However, the economic situation at home could move Moscow to considering a peace deal.
“I don’t believe Russia will ever agree to a peace agreement with Ukraine,” former US diplomat Volker says. “I think they could accept a ceasefire at some point. And I think we’re getting closer to that point.”
He adds that so far, negotiations to end the war have been a “farce,” but the new circumstances in Russia and the losses his country has sustained in the war could force Putin’s hand.
“Reality is what matters. And the Russian reality has gotten substantially worse and continues to get worse,” he argues. Time, the expert says, is not on Moscow’s side.
But as much as the analysts agree a turning point is coming, they have differing opinions on how soon that might be. Volker says he wouldn’t rule out that something significant will shift before the end of the year. Chances are “about 50%.”
Farkas, on the other hand, believes that “in 2027, we will see the Ukrainians winning.”
This article was translated from German.
