Three months into the Gulf war, renewed U.S.-Iran military exchanges have sent oil back to around $100 a barrel, dashing hopes of an imminent peace deal. April PCE inflation is forecast near 3.8% – almost twice the Fed’s target – with May nowcasts already above 4%. Plus, U.S. President Dondald Trump’s softer tone on rate cuts is raising fresh questions about whether his administration’s weaker-dollar ambitions are also being quietly shelved.
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