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Is the Islamic Republic actually on the verge of collapse, or has the recent conflict made it more dangerous? While military strikes have severely damaged Iran’s infrastructure, the regime’s grip on global trade has become a permanent threat. And as the geopolitical standoff leaves the Middle East in a volatile “no war, no peace” balance, the danger is spilling over borders. As Middle East expert Professor Thomas Juneau warns, “My fear right now is that Iranian transnational repression by the Islamic Republic is going to be worse in 2026.”