Victor Davis Hanson: China’s ‘Thucydides Trap’ Theory Doesn’t Hold Up

Chinese officials increasingly warn about the so-called “Thucydides Trap,” the idea that a rising China and an established United States are destined for war. But the historical comparison falls apart under closer examination. From ancient Athens and Sparta to modern America and China, Hanson breaks down why the analogy is flawed, why the United States is not a declining power, and why China may be facing deeper long term problems than many in the West are willing to admit. Despite endless predictions of American decline, the United States still leads China in energy production, military power, food security, technological dominance, alliances, and economic productivity, while China faces mounting problems with demographics, debt, energy dependence, and slowing growth.