Deutsche WellePolitics Germany Germany’s Iran war lessons after 100 days Christoph Hasselbach
The war waged by the US and Israel against Iran has now lasted 100 days. In that time, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has drastically changed his stance on the war.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz initially appeared taken aback by the US and Israel’s attack on Iran on February 28.
The first strikes killed key figures in the Iranian leadership, including the spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as numerous civilians. No prominent legal scholar has since claimed that these attacks are covered by international law, nor has any member of the German federal government.
Yet the phrase “violation of international law” has not yet crossed Merz’s lips. Instead, he referred to the Iranian government as a “terrorist regime,” and said “categorizing the events under international law will have relatively little effect,” adding that the US and Israel had “good reasons” for the attacks.
“I believe that (initially) Merz was convinced that the Israelis and Americans are doing things in Iran that Europeans are not capable of doing themselves, but that the political goals are correct,” Johannes Varwick, a political scientist at the University of Halle, told DW.
At the same time, he said, Merz did not want to criticize the Americans “for pursuing common goals through methods he would not have used himself.”
Even back then, Merz’s words sparked a broad debate. Critics, including those from the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights, accused him of “caving in to power politics,” while German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier warned against “ignoring” international law.
Henning Hoff of the German Council on Foreign Relations said Merz appeared to apply international law selectively — invoking it forcefully in response to Russia’s war against Ukraine while downplaying its relevance in the Iran conflict. “In reality, the chancellor seems to take a situational approach to international law,” Hoff told DW.
German Chancellor Merz criticizes US over Iran war
Transatlantic friendship by currying favor with Trump?
Criticism intensified following Merz’s meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington just a few days after the attacks began. By currying favor, Merz appeared to be trying to secure Trump’s support, which he succeeded in doing, at least temporarily.
This triggered a heated debate back in Germany. Norbert Röttgen, a foreign policy expert from the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), said in the Bundestag that it was a difficult balancing act: “What is the lesser evil?” War is, without a doubt, an evil, he said, but “The mullahs’ regime is the greater evil for the region, for the people in Iran and beyond.”
In contrast, Lea Reisner of the socialist Left Party criticized the chancellor for having allowed himself to be “paraded as Trump’s sidekick.”
Political scientist Varwick concluded that “Merz had — and this cannot be stated more clearly — a flawed compass on these issues.”
In the meantime, Germany began to feel the economic consequences of the Iran war. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused oil and gas prices to spike sharply, further stifling Germany’s already weak economy.
At home, the timing couldn’t have been worse for Merz. While approval ratings for the German government’s performance — and for Merz in particular — have plummeted, those for the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) have climbed. Recent polls show the AfD ahead of Merz’s CDU/CSU in the polls.
Merz sees the Iran war as humiliating for the US
Then, at the end of April, Merz appeared to make an abrupt about-face. Speaking to students, he said the United States had “no convincing strategy” in the Iran war and accused Iran’s leadership of “humiliating” Washington.
What prompted the apparent shift? “My impression,” said Varwick, “is that Donald Trump’s increasingly extreme rhetoric alarmed and even alienated many people who had previously been sympathetic to his position. There was even talk of wiping Iran off the map.”
Trump, who had seemed to enjoy a cordial relationship with the chancellor during their meeting in Washington, reacted angrily to the criticism. “He doesn’t know what he’s talking about!” Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social. “No wonder Germany is doing so poorly, both economically, and otherwise!”
Consequences of the US president’s anger
It prompted Trump to announce that he was withdrawing 5,000 US soldiers stationed in Germany, possibly more. He also canceled his plans to deploy Tomahawk cruise missiles in Germany as a defensive bulwark against Russia, and then once again imposed tariffs on car exports from the EU.
Merz may have angered the president, but the German public largely agrees with the chancellor’s new, critical stance. According to an ARD Deutschlandtrend poll conducted shortly after the war began, 58% of respondents agreed that the military action taken by the US and Israel was unjustified.
Furthermore, trust in the US among Germans, already low, has plunged further during Trump’s presidency. Only 15% still consider the US a reliable partner.
A gesture of goodwill from Germany
Damage control now appears to be the order of the day, though for the time being only on the German side.
While Merz has stuck to his assessment of the Iran war, he has said that Germany would participate in a naval mission in the Strait of Hormuz once hostilities end. A German minesweeper is now on standby. Whether the mission will actually take place remains to be seen. It seemed crucial, nonetheless, to make such a conciliatory gesture toward Trump.
However, this does not appear to have repaired the transatlantic relationship.
At a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Sweden in late May, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Trump views “disappointment at some of our NATO allies and their response to our operations in the Middle East” and that “that will have to be addressed.” The NATO summit in Ankara in July, Rubio added, would “probably be one of the most important in NATO’s history.”
Iran war piles pressure on Germany
A lesson learned?
For political scientist Varwick, the first 100 days of the Iran war have delivered a clear lesson for Germany. “Germany and Europe must clearly define their own interests and not stand there like a deer in the headlights, especially as Washington is bearing down on them, moving in one direction today and another tomorrow,” he said.
Before he even became chancellor last year, Friedrich Merz was advocating greater German independence from the US under Trump. After months of holding his tongue, he now appears to be back where he started.
This article was translated from German.
