Deutsche WellePolitics Iran at war: Stability masks deepening crises Shabnam von Hein
One hundred days after the start of the Iran war, the Islamic Republic appears stable. But beneath the surface, economic strain, social unrest and growing repression point to deeper instability.
On February 28, the US and Israel launched joint airstrikes targeting military and strategic sites across the Islamic Republic.
Key facilities of the Iranian armed forces were destroyed, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, along with several senior political and military figures.
Iran’s Assembly of Experts chose Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, as the country’s new supreme leader.
Tehran responded to the US-Israeli attacks with massive retaliatory strikes, deploying missiles and drones against Israel, US military bases and other targets across the Gulf region.
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Iran also closed the Strait of Hormuz — a key waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which around 20% of global oil and gas exports passed before the conflict — as a geopolitical pressure tool.
Fragile peace, resilient power structures
A fragile ceasefire only came into effect on April 8, initially reducing hostilities, but it continues to be violated almost daily.
“I do not see any structural changes in the Islamic Republic over the past 100 days,” said Mohammad Ghaedi, an Iran expert and lecturer at George Washington University specializing in Middle Eastern politics and international relations.
“Before the war, there were deep divisions among political elites, and the gap between the state and society had widened significantly following the government’s crackdown on dissent,” he said.
Ghaedi told DW the war had helped ease some of these divisions, both among elites and between the state and society.
“The level of cohesion among political elites we see today is relatively rare in the post-revolutionary period. That cohesion has been one of the main sources of resilience,” he said, cautioning against interpreting the current stability as a sign of lasting consolidation.
“The Islamic Republic still faces major challenges, including crises of legitimacy, effectiveness, and distribution. As concerns about security and survival recede, these underlying problems are likely to become more visible again and make governance increasingly difficult.”
Night gatherings and fading hope
The Iranian regime has mobilized supporters who, for more than three months, have gathered in cities and villages across the country to show backing for its political system and leaders.
One Tehran resident, who does not take part in the rallies, said they are rather noisy affairs. “Before 11 p.m., it’s nearly impossible to sleep,” she told DW. “It’s loud outside, and it’s exhausting.”
A women’s rights activist, who also lives in the Iranian capital, said the nightly gatherings were intended to show that the Islamic regime has regained control of the streets following January’s clampdown by Iran’s clerical rulers on anti-government demonstrations.
“Many people are still angry about the brutal crackdown on the protests,” the 42-year-old, who did not wish to be named, told DW. “Almost everyone in my circle knows someone who was shot, injured or arrested.”
She added that since the war began and the bombings started, “hardly anyone still believes in positive change.”
For many who were disillusioned with Iran’s political system, the idea of war initially seemed like a quick and easy path to regime change. In January, while security forces reportedly shot thousands of protesters, US President Donald Trump promised that help was on the way.
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During the nearly six-week US-Israel war with Iran, densely populated Iranian cities were bombed multiple times a day.
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” Trump wrote on April 7 on his online platform, Truth Social.
“That was terrifying. I still don’t know how we endured it all,” the activist told DW.
In addition to military targets, the attacks also hit key industrial facilities across Iran, including steel and petrochemical plants. Production halts in these sectors have triggered chain reactions, forcing dozens of dependent businesses to suspend operations.
Caught between rising poverty and intensifying repression
Tens of thousands of jobs have already been lost, leaving hundreds of thousands of other workers to fear for their livelihoods.
Inflation has surged to over 50%, severely eroding people’s purchasing power. With a legal minimum wage of the equivalent of just under €75 ($87) a month, many Iranians can barely afford even basic services.
According to Amnesty International, “Iranian authorities have arbitrarily arrested more than 6,000 people, including protesters, journalists, lawyers, human rights defenders, dissidents, and members of ethnic and religious minorities” since the start of US-Israeli airstrikes.
“During the same period, authorities have imposed decades-long prison sentences against individuals and carried out at least 39 political executions,” the rights organization reported on May 28.
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Many Iranians said they must also contend with frequent, often arbitrary police checks and roadblocks during which cellphones and cars are searched.
“At these checkpoints, many people have been arrested simply because of their social media posts,” said human rights activist Shiva Nazar Ahari.
As a member of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, a grassroots activist organization, Ahari has documented violations in Iran. Because of her work, she was repeatedly arrested and served several prison sentences, according to Amnesty International. She now lives in Slovenia.
“The current level of repression is extremely severe,” Ahari said. “It’s often not even clear who is making decisions or which institution is in control — and that uncertainty may be the worst part.”
Following an 88-day nationwide internet shutdown, access was partially restored at the end of May, but many services remain restricted, making communication with the outside world difficult.
“In recent days, we’ve learned that most of those arrested in connection with the nationwide protests in January are still in prison,” Ahari said.
“Public attention is currently focused on the executions, which is of course extremely important. But the available information shows that even people with no prior criminal record are being given prison sentences of at least four to five years — and in many cases more than 10.”
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This article was originally written in German.
