Kanal13Israel aims to fundamentally change Iran’s political course. Two mutually reinforcing scenarios are possible: direct regime change or its weakening with a simultaneous intensification of protests. Evdokia Dobreva, a research fellow at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences told RTVI .
“Therefore, the primary focus will be on strikes against military targets and nuclear facilities, as well as decapitating strikes against the country’s political leadership, with the expectation that protesters will mobilize and seize power in the country, in other words, an attempt to stage another color revolution,” said Evdokia Dobreva. According to the expert, “Iran’s response options include missile strikes on Israel and US bases throughout the region, the involvement of Iranian proxies, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”
“More precisely, an attempt to mine the strait is possible, but there’s a chance the Iranians will simply be prevented. Furthermore, over the past six months, there have been reports of various military equipment shipments to Iran from China and Russia; perhaps we’ll soon see what the Islamic Republic has in its arsenal. However, the direct involvement of Iran’s strategic partners in the conflict seems unlikely, as this would precipitate a new world war,” the orientalist noted in an interview with RTVI. Expert recalled that Iran retaliated by attacking targets in Bahrain, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar, so “retaliatory strikes from these countries cannot be ruled out, meaning an escalation of the conflict to the regional level.” As Trump himself stated, the US has launched a large-scale operation against Iran, which could last anywhere from several days to several weeks unless Iran capitulates and meets all US demands.
“Considering that the Iranian authorities have made it clear they will not accept humiliating demands and are prepared to fight for their independence and sovereignty, the outlook looks bleak. It’s too early to say what kind of country Iran will emerge from this conflict as and what will happen when the military phase ends, but the political landscape could change dramatically,” concluded Evdokia Dobreva. US and Israeli operation against Iran, which began on the morning of February 28, could weaken its military potential and even lead to the “elimination of part of the military-administrative staff.” However, the regime’s destruction is extremely difficult to imagine, Lyudmila Samarskaya, a research fellow at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told. “It’s possible to reduce Iran’s military capabilities, eliminate some of its military and administrative personnel, and generally weaken the ruling structures, but it’s extremely difficult to imagine the regime’s destruction: it’s unlikely to be achievable from the outside,” Lyudmila Samarskaya told RTVI.
The expert clarified that “the overthrow of the regime as a direct result of the attacks seems extremely unlikely.” “At the same time, the war could be a factor that will influence this in the long term. It’s difficult to discuss specific scenarios yet. Israel is unlikely to expect a long-term operation, but much will depend on the specific goals of the war, the scale of Iran’s retaliatory strikes, and the extent of US involvement in the fighting. The maximum duration is difficult to predict at this point, but the minimum could likely be from a few days to several weeks,” expert suggested. According to Lyudmila Samarskaya, “the timing [of the start of the operation] is difficult to explain precisely, but it appears that it may be connected to how the results of the current round of negotiations were interpreted—the US administration likely considered them insufficiently successful.”
